If Arsenal concedes a penalty against Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final today, they will have just a 59% chance of conceding.
Argentine goalkeeper Joaquin Ketlun recently posted on Tiktok that Vinicius Junior's run-up is enough to determine the direction of the Real star's penalty kick.
When he stops on his right foot during the run-up, Vinicius will shoot to the left. If he stops on both feet, or does a double-stop, he will open his hips and shoot to the right. If he doesn't stop during the run-up, the 24-year-old will shoot to the top right corner.
Ketlun's small study was based on the 11m kicks Vinicius has taken in his career, including 12 penalties. Vinicius has missed four penalties, meaning his success rate is only 67%, compared to the average of a normal player of 78%.
Vinicius is not alone, other Real players have not performed well in front of the 11m mark, in the last two seasons. In previous seasons, Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema took turns taking penalties for the Royal Club. The two players' shooting rates in their careers at Real were 95% and 86% respectively. Ramos alone has scored 22 goals from 23 penalties for the team.
But since Ramos left in 2021 and Benzema left in 2023, Real has lacked a player with the courage to take the 11m mark. Their penalty success rate in 2019-20 and 2020-2021 was 100%. In the next two seasons, it dropped to about the average, 77%. But in the last two seasons, this figure has dropped to only 59%.
Of the 20 teams to have been awarded 10 or more penalties in European leagues and the Champions League since 2023-24, Real are only 17th in terms of success rate.
Last season, they scored just three goals from seven penalties. Joselu missed twice, while Luka Modric and Rodrygo Goes scored once. Vinicius scored twice, while Bellingham scored once.
Last summer, they welcomed Kylian Mbappe, who scored three penalties in the 2022 World Cup final. Mbappe's penalty success rate in his career before joining Real was 81%, not as high as Ramos or Benzema, but still better than Vinicius or Rodrygo.
As a result, Real's success rate has improved, but still only at 67% this season. Vinicius missed a shot in the defeat to Valencia on April 5, and another shot over the bar against Atletico in the Champions League last month. Mbappe also missed two in a week, earlier in the season. Bellingham has scored once but also missed a penalty this season.
So, what's the problem?
Coach Carlo Ancelotti uses a rotation method of taking penalties between Mbappe, Vinicius and Bellingham. The player who takes the penalty will continue to take it the next time, but if he misses, he has to give the right to take the penalty to someone else. After Vinicius missed the penalty in the loss to Valencia, the penalty kick was given back to Mbappe.
This method is considered bad for the players' psychology. Because they will be under more pressure if they miss, they will lose the chance to score in the next time. Because for players, taking a penalty is often the best chance to put the ball in the net.
Other teams rarely use the rotation method. They usually designate one player to start, and the other players only have a chance when that player is not on the field.
Barca have scored all 10 penalties in all competitions this season, thanks to Robert Lewandowski (8 goals), Dani Olmo and Raphinha (1). Olmo and Raphinha scored when Lewandowski was not on the pitch.
Similarly, Inter have had five penalty takers this season, but Hakan Calhanoglu remains the main choice. Only one player has taken a penalty when Calhanoglu was on the pitch, when Inter led Red Star Belgrade 3-0 in the Champions League group stage. Therefore, Mehdi Taremi was given the opportunity to take a penalty to score his first goal for the team.
But at Real, all seven times Vinicius and Bellingham have taken penalties this season, Mbappe has been on the pitch.
Each Real player also has different methods of running up and taking penalties. Bellingham sometimes took a "skip" shot like Jorginho, then hit the post against Valencia. Vinicius and Mbappe also change their running up method constantly. This method can make the goalkeeper unpredictable, but the players themselves also lose confidence and shooting habits. It's even possible that the goalkeeper can figure out Vinicius's moves, as Ketlun has shown.
Despite their poor penalty kicks, Real are still dangerous in penalty shootouts. They have won all five of their last matches that have gone to penalties, including when they eliminated Atletico this season and Man City last season in the Champions League.
But in the match against Arsenal at Emirates Stadium at 2am on Wednesday, April 9, Hanoi time, there will be no penalty shootout. So even if they are awarded a penalty, Mikel Arteta and his team can still hope that Real misses.