England - Arsenal are inferior to Real Madrid in both experience and achievements, before the clash in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals today.
This is a clash between two teams who are second in the Premier League and La Liga but have opposite positions in the Champions League. The last time Arsenal went further than the quarterfinals was in 2009, when they beat Roma before losing to Villarreal in the semi-finals. Since then, Real have won the competition six times.
With Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus absent and Bukayo Saka just returning from injury, the defence remains Arsenal's mainstay. In this season's Champions League, Mikel Arteta's side have the lowest expected goals conceded per game (0.88) and concede an average of only 0.6 goals per game, second only to Inter Milan's 0.2.
Arsenal have only trailed for 65 minutes in the tournament and have led for 568 minutes - a figure no other club has reached this season.
But that was before. At the moment, their defence is seriously damaged. The team's best centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes unexpectedly suffered a hamstring injury on April 1 and will be out for the rest of the season. Before that, Takehiro Tomiyasu also had surgery and will only be able to return next season, while Riccardo Calafiori will be out for two weeks, while Ben White and Jurrien Timber are not really fit.
That weakened defence will face arguably Europe's strongest attack, led by Kylian Mbappe. The French striker has scored 10 goals in 16 Champions League games against English opposition, including four in the two play-offs against Man City this season.
Experience and character in Europe's top club competition remain the biggest differences. In the 2023-24 season, Arteta brought Arsenal back to the Champions League after six years. They also reached the quarterfinals but lost 3-2 on aggregate to Bayern.
In contrast, Real are unbeaten in the first leg of their last eight Champions League knockout rounds, winning five of them. They are also unbeaten in their last five away knockout first-leg matches. In the play-off round against Man City, Carlo Ancelotti's men came from behind to win 3-2 at the Etihad and then crushed their opponents 3-1 in the second leg at the Bernabeu.
Real have beaten 111 clubs in the European Cup/Champions League, but Arsenal is not among them. In their rare previous encounter, in the 2006 Champions League Round of 16, the Gunners won 1-0, thanks to an iconic Thierry Henry strike in the first leg at the Bernabeu.
According to the supercomputer Opta, Arsenal has a 41.7% chance of winning, compared to Real's 31.1% at the Emirates today, with a draw at 27.2%. The Gunners need to turn that positive prediction into reality to keep their hopes alive ahead of the rematch in Spain a week later.
Expected lineup
Arsenal: Raya; Tierney, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Partey, Odegaard; Martinelli, Saka, Merino.
Real: Courtois; Garcia, Rudiger, Asencio, Vazquez; Bellingham, Valverde, Modric; Rodrygo, Mbappe, Viniciusc.