Expectations that Russia-US tensions will cool down have helped the ruble strengthen against the US dollar since the beginning of the year.
During the trading session on April 18, the ruble price increased by 1.5% to 80.9 RUB per USD. This is the strongest level since the end of June 2024. The reason is that on April 17, Brent and WTI crude oil increased by more than 3%. Oil is a key export product, contributing greatly to the Russian budget.
In general, since the beginning of the year, the ruble price has increased by more than 40% against the US dollar, mainly due to expectations that US-Russia tensions will cool down. US President Donald Trump is pushing for negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement, as the war has entered its fourth year. The Kremlin said on April 18 that there has been some progress in the negotiations, but that the communication process with the US "remains complicated".
Meanwhile, the USD has also lost value recently, as Mr. Trump's import tax policy has investors worried about the health of the US economy. The Dollar Index - which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of major currencies - is currently around 99.2 points. This is a three-year low.
Russia is not on the list of countries subject to reciprocal tariffs when exporting to the US. The White House explained that the sanctions have made trade between the two countries "insignificant". However, this week, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told CNBC that the global trade war is still affecting the Russian economy.
"Of course, Russia is not immune to global economic instability. However, we are still working on macroeconomic stability, even in the face of numerous sanctions," he affirmed.
"If the tariff war pushes the global economy into recession and reduces trade, demand for crude oil will also decline. This will be a blow to the Russian economy," Alexander Kolyandr, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Studies, explained to CNBC.
In March, the country's inflation rate was 10.3%. The Russian Central Bank is still maintaining interest rates at 21% to curb price pressures.